May 5th, 2008
Global warming and how we should deal with it has provoked much debate and spawned new industries where entrepreneurs expect to make their fortune (with the help of government assistance) and at the same time fight this new threat. Many of the technologies on which these businesses are based have been poorly researched and some have had unintended consequences.The most notable example of the above is the biofuel industry. The theory of biofuels is that we use them instead of fossil fuels which are wasting assets. Its use was made popular by Brazil in the 1970’s when the price of oil went through the roof and they had vast quantities of sugar they couldn’t sell. Ethanol provided as alternative fuel to run their cars. This was an economic decision where the Brazilians were prepared to accept this less efficient fuel and the high cost of production was more than offset by the world oil price at that time.
Once again we are faced with a skyrocketing oil price and there is a world wide demand for us to reduce carbon emissions. In theory biofuels meet these requirements but even this is subject to query - dependant on how they are produced and taking into account the felling of rainforest, the ploughing of grasslands etc. to grow the feed stock to meet the demand for biofuels.
What we are looking at in this particular article is the results of converting land previously given over to food production to grow feed stock for the biofuel industry. We are already seeing food shortages and rising prices which particularly impact on poorer countries. Food riots are already taking place and we are at the early stages of the expansion of the biofuel industry. Millions of people will be pushed into a state of mass starvation. Some countries which traditionally exported food have already introduced export restrictions to protect their own sources. The misery caused by shortage of food is likely to provide a fertile breeding for disease and terrorism both in their own countries and among sympathisers and relatives in the West. It is after all difficult to morally justify starving people to run gas guzzlers. This is particularly true when you consider that biofuels may not be resulting in lower carbon emissions.
One thing is clear; we should not be rushing headlong into biofuel production without thorough investigation into the technological, social and political ramifications. We must first of all consider whether:
I do not want to condemn biofuels but in the light of today’s technology the downside risk is great. Further technological advances may change the outlook and certainly justifies the small scale production necessary to develop new technology. However, to pour in public funds for large scale use might be considered premature.
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