The Time Bomb

By: Mike Gallagher

We talk about saving the world from climate change, feeding its people and potential mass migration of needy people, yet we do not talk about the root cause that combines all these problems into one gigantic potential catastrophe.

Population is not a fashionable topic of conversation, and when China made a valiant attempt to tackle its problem with its one child policy, it was met with world wide criticism by the same people who have very strong views on what are in fact the symptoms referred to above, and not the disease.

The world population is projected to rise from 6.8 billion currently to 9.1 billion by 2050, and most of this 34% increase will occur in the poorest parts of the world. Let us look at how this population expansion will impact on the problems outlined above.

Climate Change: The need to develop economics to provide for the growing populations in areas like the sub Saharan Africa requires power, and in light of the current and projected technology this will put severe pressure on ambitious targets for carbon reduction. Use of power is not just production of electricity; it is transport, manufacturing, farm equipment etc. It is fair to say that development cannot occur without power. Is it any wonder that countries like India and China are reluctant to sign any agreement which locks than not a secondary position?

Food Supplies: A 34% increase in population requires a lot of feeding. To produce the extra food massive investment will be needed in infrastructure, equipment, water management and education. Political will is needed by both the developing and the developed world. The latter will have to provide aid and expertise to make it happen. The exploding population of the developing world will make it difficult to find this will. Zimbabwe is an example of an efficient agricultural country turning into a basket case. If the world is to feed itself in 2050 we cannot afford many similar events.

Migration: Facing starvation smaller and poorer states are likely to sink into civil war. The desire to flee to a better life is likely to prove irresistible, and hundreds of millions of people will be potentially on the move. They will head if possible to the developed economies, particularly those with a generous social security system. An example of this is how illegal emigrants currently pass through Italy, Spain and France to get to the UK. This is against current United Nation rules, but how do you enforce compliance?

Countries like the UK, Netherlands and Germany, which have a history of welcoming emigrants, are finding the numbers of unskilled emigrants of a different culture more than their own electorates are prepared to accept. The attempted mass movement has only just started. There is very little likelihood that the UN rules on refugees will survive as the elected governments of the developed economies will face electoral suicide if they do not do something. In Australia we are likely to see a reversion to the laws of the Howard period despite having them described as barbaric in the past.

When we look at the looming problems over the next 50 years it seems that the current obsession with ETS and carbon targets, while most countries will fail to meet them, is an example of nibbling around the edges and ignoring the main problem of population growth. This is not to suggest that we ignore climate change. We must also realise that there is a limit to the carrying capacity of the earth and that there must be ways other than war, disease and starvation to control population growth.

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