January 17th, 2008
It used to be said that if the US sneezed the rest of the world caught a cold. Australia always resented this subservient relationship and as our trade with China, Korea and Japan took off our media adopted a “hairy chest” approach maintaining that we had such a strong economy that a US recession would not affect us. Now that there is a very real danger of a recession our local pundits are having second thoughts as they become aware of the realities of world trade.
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January 3rd, 2008
Australians have forgotten what inflation means. The last 10 years have seen rising real wages and relatively stable prices. Each rise in petrol prices or .25% rise in interest rates was greeted by a public outcry. Unemployment was at a 40 year low and spurred on by dropping prices for consumer goods from China. We rushed in to buy the latest trinkets and built ever larger houses for smaller families. The world economy increased to take up spare productive capacity and in many cases prices actually dropped. The effect of this favourable pricing movement was, in the case of Australia, increased by an overvalued exchange rate which made imports cheaper. The subprime lending fiasco has brought this to an end. Credit to finance Australia’s Balance of Payments is no longer easily available and is more expensive.
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